Something has to give...that's the theme this week as newly-minted number one Ohio State travelsto Madison to play the 18th-ranked Badgers.
Pressure of being #1 vs. Nothing to Lose-Both teams came into the season withhopes of contending for a national title. Ohio State's dream is still strong, but now it comes withthe pressure of being ranked number one. Wisconsin, meanwhile, with a loss to Michigan State,really has nothing to lose. Do the Buckeyes handle being a target? I get the sense that this teamthrives under pressure, and enjoys challenges. EDGE: OHIO STATE.
Wisconsin at home vs. OSU on road-Since 2005, the Badgers are 40-4 in Camp RandallStadium. One of those losses (2008) was to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been far and away the bestroad team in the Big Ten since 2005, and have won 19 of their last 20 conference games away fromOhio Stadium. I've been to Camp Randall Stadium (14-14 tie in 1993), and it's just plain nuts. Astough as a place as it is (OSU is just 6-5-1 in Madison since 1982), the Buckeyes have won four oftheir last five in Camp Randall. Intangibles like these make a strong difference in close games. EDGE: WISCONSIN
SPECIAL SECTION: Ohio StateFootball
Wisconsin run game vs. OSU run defense-As surely as Wisconsin is known for cheese,the Badgers are known for their running game on offense. From Brent Moss to Terrell Fletcher toCarl McCullough to Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne to Michael Bennett to Anthony Davis to P.J. Hilland now John Clay, U-W turns out 1,000 yard rushers like it does liberals. Ohio State always has agood run defense, finishing in the top 18 in the NCAA seven of the past nine years. The Buckeyeshaven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Joe McKnight ran for 105 in the 2008 loss at USC. TheBadgers are 15-2 when Clay tops the century mark and 19-3 when he crosses the goal-line. EDGE: WISCONSIN
OSU defensive line vs. Wisconsin offensive line-The battle within that battle isthe Wisconsin offensive line against the OSU defensive line. It's more than just the run game,however. If the Badgers can advance it on the ground, that opens up the passing game. If the lineprotects and gives quarterback Scott Tolzien time to throw, it could be a long day for the OSUdefense. Last season in Columbus, the Buckeye front dominated the Badgers line. It won't happenagain. EDGE: WISCONSIN
OSU offensive line vs. Wisconsin defensive line-Flipping things around, here'swhere I see the biggest key to Saturday's game. If OSU's offensive line plays up to itscapabilities, the Buckeyes could win by two touchdowns. However, the Badgers are stout on thedefensive front (particularly J.J. Watt). If the Buckeyes' big boys open holes for the backs, andgive Terrelle Pryor time to throw, Wisconsin's back seven can't hang. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Pryor vs. Tolzien-Obviously the quarterbacks don't go head-to-head, but whicheversignal caller performs the best will likely be the winner. Both have been mistake prone (Pryor vs.Purdue last season, Tolzien vs. OSU last season), but have limited those gaffes this year (justfive combined interceptions thrown). If Ohio State can complete some passes, the danger of Pryortaking off on the run becomes greater. If he's more willing (or should I say able) to run than hedid last week, it makes the Buckeyes all the tougher the stop. If Scott Tolzien isn't a big threatin the passing game, OSU's defense will stuff the box to stop the run. For a Wisconsin upset,Tolzien must be able to thrown the ball effectively. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Tressel vs. Bielema-Who does Jim Tressel have the worst record against of any BigTen team? Why, it's Wisconsin (4-3). Who has Bret Bielema never beaten as Wisconsin head coach?Yep, Ohio State (0-3). Taking it a step further, when you include his time at Iowa and Kansas Stateas an assistant, staffs that Beliema have been on are just 1-10 against the Buckeyes (he wasdefensive coordinator at Wisconsin in 2004 when the Badgers won 24-13). Pressure is starting tomount in Madison for the Badgers to start winning their share of big games. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Jump Around-This takes me back to my college days when this awful song by House ofPain came out. For some reason, the Camp Randall Crazies have adopted it, and it blares over theloudspeakers in between the third and fourth quarters of every home game since October of 1998. Youdo have to admit, it's pretty cool to see 80,000 jumping up and down to the song. It pulls you in,too. So much so, that visiting teams (including Ohio State) have taken to participation. Back in2008, the Buckeye bench was "jumping around", letting the crowd know they were into the game, andnot intimidated by the crowd. When the dust settles, this isn't something that happens on thefield, so it has little actual effect on the game. EDGE: OHIO STATE
So, what do I think will happen? What do I know? I've been way off the past two weeks. I thoughtOhio State would have no trouble with Illinois, and I thought they would play it conservativeagainst Indiana.
I look for the Buckeyes to try and get control of the game early. This would help take thecrowd out of it, and also help settle OSU into the game. Furthermore, it forces Wisconsin to tryand react more instead of proceed with the game plan. Of course, this is all easier said thandone.
Will Ohio State come out and play loose, or will the Bucks be conservative? That is the $64,000question (by the way with inflation, that same question in 1955 when the show debuted would now beworth over $521,000). In my opinion, loose is better. Conservative will only cast doubt, and playto not make mistakes.
I think Pryor plays very well, and is the difference in the game. I would expect 175-200 yardspassing with a couple of touchdowns, and another 50 or so rushing, with another score there.Unfortunately, the questioning of Ohio State's running backs will likely continue. I see a 20-carry75-yard type game for Boom Herron.
Special teams will play a big role as well. Every punt is vital, and kick returns will be aswell. While OSU has shored up its trouble on kick coverage, the Badgers have not. On top of that,the Buckeyes are tenth in the country in kick returns, despite not having broken one for atouchdown yet.
On defense, Wisconsin will have its way at times. The Badgers run game is too good not to,although I'm not sold on Tolzien beating Ohio State through the air consistently, which is whatwill have to happen for a UW "W".
While I'm tempted to pick a comfortable two-touchdown win for Ohio State, Camp Randall at nightprohibits that. This will be a close one, with Ohio State pulling out a 27-21 win.
For a preview of Saturday's game, watch our one-hour Buckeye Blitz special Friday night at 8 p.m. on 10TV. Dan Fronczak will be in Madison on Saturday, and he'll have a report in Wall toWall Sports at 11:35 p.m., as we recap the game.
