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Record-breaking heat heading into October

The heat is on and it's certainly not feeling like fall.
Warm front | Sept. 30, 2019

Remember the beginning of September? School was getting back in session, temperatures were below average and we thought we were getting an early sneak peek of fall?

That idea was shot when we had a heatwave in the middle of the month and our high temperatures were at or above 90 degrees for four consecutive days during the second week of the month.

Since then we've seen bursts of Fall, but the heat continues to rage on, with what is already a historic month here in central Ohio.

Average temperature for September

Total precip for September

If the month would end today (we have one day left), we would be looking at the second warmest and 10th driest September on record.

The lack of rain has also aided in the recent heat, with temperatures expected to eclipse 90 degrees yet again this month and to start the month of October.

Hot weather facts

Not only have we been stacking up the 90 degree days (27 so far in 2019), but we may even tie the record for the most 90 degree days in October (two in 2007). You might be thinking, Two? That's it? That's not very impressive. Yeah, at first glance it doesn't seem like an earth-shattering record, but when you have only seen a total of four 90 degree days on record (dating back to the late 1800s)... that raises some eyebrows.

So what's the reason for the abnormally warm conditions? Let's look at the Jet Stream.

Upper level winds

This is a pattern we would usually see in the summer. A strong ridge of high pressure to the east, with the Jet stream extending north of the United States. All the snow you've been seeing falling in the NW Pacific is thanks to the cut-off low that's currently meandering across the area, bringing much cooler and historic snowfall to parts of Montana and surrounding areas.

The heat will be here for the first half of the week and we can expect the humidity to stick around, too.

Humidity on the rise

Dew points will be in the 65-70 degree range through Wednesday, with a sharp drop off in the heat and humidity as we head into the latter half of the week. (Yay!)

Warm front on Doppler 10 Radar

A warm front at the surface will begin to shift winds more out of the southwest, which will also aid in warmer than average conditions. Rain chances during this potential heatwave will be slim, but don't be surprised if you see a few pop-up showers and storms during the afternoon hours through Wednesday.

The Week Ahead

Typically, we see an average high and low of 71 and 51 for this time of the year. The forecast for this week has us around 20 degrees ABOVE average for both highs and lows through the mid-week.

We could also break some daily records in the process. Daily daytime highs for the next three days will be contested, especially on October 1st and 2nd. In order for it to be classified as a heatwave, we need three consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher. After the scorching start to the month, we'll see MUCH cooler and drier weather this weekend.

Stay tuned for more details on the potential heatwave and what the month of October has to offer in my monthly outlook blog later this week.