Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Dorian 5am update
Published:

Friday, August 30 Update: Hurricane Dorian continues to drift NW over the Atlantic today and appears to gather quite a bit over the Labor Day weekend. Little to no shear, warm waters and no interactions with any islands could allow for this storm to be a category 4 hurricane by Sunday.

Dorian 5am Fri

This potential category 4 will move over the NW Bahamas as we head into next week. Over the past several updates, Dorian is projected to move slower and slower as it closes on the Florida coast, which is why the storm continues to gain strength. The longer it takes for it to make landfall, the more likely the storm will continue to deepen and develop. A U.S. landfall along the Florida coast could occur as late as Tuesday morning, but the hurricanes winds will be felt long before that.

Along with devastating storm surge and hurricane forced winds, extremely heavy rainfall. All of these impacts, with the exception of the hurricane force winds will continue to cause issues along the coast as long as the storm remains stationed in the Atlantic. The sooner is moves inland, the faster winds will die down, storm surge and heavy rainfall will diminish. Regardless, it is a life-threatening situation and with the strength of a possible category 4 storm, the impacts will be very much the same.

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Wednesday, August 28 Update: Tropical Storm Dorian will bring heavy rain and strong winds to Puerto Rico and surrounding islands today. Strong tropical storm forced winds and heavy rain will impact those areas today and tomorrow before lifting north of Puerto Rico Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next couple days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

The recent update supports more of a northwest track with Dorian into a more favorable environment for development. Rapid intensification is expected heading into the Labor Day weekend. Potential category 2 hurricane strength as the storm closes in on the Florida coast on Sunday. While this update supports a much stronger storm, there is still a lot of uncertainty with this systems strength and track heading into the weekend.

Those who live in Florida and along the SE coast should continue to monitor the situation as many updates on Dorian will come over the next several days.

5am Dorian Update

Tuesday, August 27 Update: Tropical Storm Dorian has weakened a touch since yesterday but still a very strong tropical storm moving over the Lesser Antilles this morning.

With the recent update from the NHC, dry air and wind shear appear to play more of a role in the outlook of Dorian. While the latest forecast has Dorian remaining a tropical storm, it will be a strong storm nonetheless. Dorian will continue a WNW trek through the Caribbean today and Wednesday, eventually moving between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Beyond that, the uncertainty with Dorian grows but we should continue to see the storm move towards the Bahamas this weekend.

5:00 a.m. key messages from the NHC:

5am Dorian Update

Monday, August 26 Update: Tropical Storm watches and warnings are in effect through portions of the Lesser Antilles as Tropical Storm Dorian continues to move closer to the islands today.

8am Dorian Update

Dorian currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and is heading west at roughly 14 miles per hour this morning. Dorian is expected to produce several inches of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts of 6".

Once this storm moves past these islands in the next 24 hours, there is growing uncertainty in the storms overall path & strength. Slow strengthening will likely take place over the next couple days as low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures are present in the eastern Caribbean. The rate at which this storm will develop should be limited considering how Dorian will be in an environment with a considerable amount of dry air.

Afterwards, Dorian will approach Hispaniola, where an increase in wind shear and rugged terrain should lead to rapid weakening. Models have been suggestive that Dorian could dissipate in the Caribbean Sea late this week but it is often difficult predicting compact tropical cyclones like Dorian.

From the National Hurricane Center(NHC): "While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, interest in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.

More updates to come!