Rest of November Outlook; Will we see more seasonable conditions?


It's been cold to start the month of November. That's the best way to sum it up. We've been below average for nearly every day this month with respect to the average temperature(accounting for both the high and low for a given day).

Our average temperature through November 1 to November 17 was 36.5 degrees. Dating back to 1948, that is the second coldest on record when looking at that time period.

We won't end there, though. It appears that the second half of the month will bring more "seasonable" conditions overall to central Ohio.

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Temperature trend over the next week

Now not every day this week will be above or near average but we'll see a few days later this week where temperatures will be in the 50's. That, of course, will come with chances for rain, specifically on Thursday and Friday.

Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Temperature Outlook

Looking ahead at the rest of the month, the Climate Prediction Center(CPC) is forecasting below-average conditions for much of the United States the week of Thanksgiving.

The signal isn't strong, but there is reason to believe from this forecast, that we could also see some active weather next week.

Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Precipitation Outlook

The CPC is also forecast above-average precipitation for much of the country, but again, there is still not a strong signal that all of these areas will see above-average precipitation.

For central Ohio, both precipitation and temperature show areas highlighted by neither above or below average conditions. This means we have "equal chances" for both above, below and average conditions. It doesn't tell us much, but given that this forecast is for an 8 to 14 day period, models can't deliver us the specifics just yet with the resources we have.

It also doesn't help when our long-range models aren't hinting at the same type of weather pattern next week.

Jet Stream Forecast Model A

"Model A" above shows an active weather pattern going into the middle of next week before Thanksgiving. This would allow for colder air in the NW Pacific region and more mild air in the southeast and east.

This "dip" in the jet stream would suggest that we could see some chance for rain(snow if cold enough) for the latter half of next week. This model would likely support mild and dry conditions over central Ohio for Thanksgiving.

Jet Stream Forecast Model B

Now over to "Model B" where the cooler air is not as pronounced, but it is still showing a dip in the jet stream. This dip or trough is further east, into the upper Midwest, too. This would mean we could see some precipitation closer to Thanksgiving, but again, this is far out to where we don't know any specifics surrounding the holiday.

The takeaway from this article shouldn't be what the weather will be for Thanksgiving(Specifics like such are beyond the scope of this blog) but more so what the rest of the month could feature weather-wise across the state and country.

It looks like an active pattern with chances for rain into this week, with some more seasonable conditions. Cooler and dry over the weekend with highs in the 40s. Next week will likely feature a short period of above-average conditions before cooling back down late in the week around Thanksgiving. Thankfully, we won't be dealing with any record-breaking cold!

Stay tuned with 10TV for the latest changes in our weather.