November Outlook: Shots of cold air with above average precipitation


Before we dig in to the details on the month, lets briefly take a look at what our normals are for November.

Image courtesy: NWS Wilmington Ohio

Notice in the far right column we actually have some amounts of snowfall. Typically, we end up with around 0.9" of snow in November. In the past 3 Novembers, we received only a trace. Before that a whopping 4.1" in 2014 and 4.7" in 2013.

Photo Courtesy: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

The point is that snow is possible in the month of November and given our current outlook for the next few weeks, it appears snow is possible this year too.

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The amount of snow, timing, duration, etc. is beyond the scope of this blog but we will certainly see some flakes before Thanksgiving this year(We had a trace of snow in Columbus the day before Thanksgiving last year too). Expect near average snowfall for the month(Up to 1").

Expect 2-4 blasts of cold air this month that will keep our average temperature(one day or more) at least 10 degrees below average. The majority of these cold shots appear to come through during the second and third week of the month before returning to more seasonable conditions for the end of the month. There is strong confidence in these colder than average conditions over the next few weeks with some rebounding to near average during the latter half of the month. As we discuss events more than 2 weeks out, the uncertainty and overall confidence in the forecast grows. There is. however, some weak to moderate confidence that there will be some rebound in temperatures later in the month.

Below is a look at the overall temperature forecast for the month of November provided by the Climate Prediction Center(CPC).

Notice how we are in the middle of below average and above average temperatures. This essentially means we have equal chances of having normal, above or below average temperatures for the month. Given the next couple weeks and uncertainty for the latter half of the month, expect us in Columbus to lean more towards average to below average for temperatures.

As far precipitation is concerned with, there is very strong confidence in above average precipitation for the Ohio Valley. Keep in mind this takes in the rain and snow(liquid equivalent).

Again, the sole purpose of this blog is to look at some of the broad expectations for the month of November. Exact timing on rainfall, snow, amounts, duration, etc. is beyond the scope of this blog but we'll keep you updated on those events as they get closer and the information becomes available.