A decision to overrule Roe would lead to abortion bans in roughly half the states and could have huge ramifications for this year's elections. But it's unclear if the draft represents the court’s final word on the matter — opinions often change in ways big and small in the drafting process.
Twenty-six states are certain or likely to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned, according to the pro-abortion rights think tank the Guttmacher Institute. Of those, 22 states already have total or near-total bans on the books that are currently blocked by Roe, aside from Texas. The state's law banning it after six weeks has already been allowed to go into effect by the Supreme Court due to its unusual civil enforcement structure. Four more states are considered likely to quickly pass bans if Roe is overturned, based on the political composition of those states and previous actions to limit access to abortion.
Here is the list, according to the pro-abortion rights think tank the Guttmacher Institute. It includes 13 states with "trigger laws" -- laws on the books that would allow the ban to go into effect immediately or in short order if Roe is overturned.
States with 'trigger laws'
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
States considered certain or likely to ban abortions
- South Carolina
- West Virginia
States expected to try and ban abortion if Roe overturned
Sixteen states and the District of Columbia, meanwhile, have protected access to abortion in state law.