August 2018 Weather Outlook

August 2018 Weather Outlook

Remember back at the beginning of July when it felt miserably hot & oppressive out? It's kind of hard to forget, especially when more than half the days during the first two weeks of the month had highs of 90 degrees or higher.

After those two brutal weeks, we had a pattern shift and temperatures cooled down quite a bit for the rest of the month with no more 90 degree days.

Looking at the big picture for the state, temperatures were mainly above average for parts of central, north & east Ohio, with precipitation clearly above average along the Ohio River and downwind of Lake Erie during last month.

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Something that has also been developing, and honestly, something we haven't talked about at all this year is drought. Above is a comparison of drought conditions from the start of July to the end. Clearly, drought conditions worsened for parts of the Midwest and now is evident in Northern Ohio. And it also appears that drought conditions may get worse before they get better.

Temperatures during the first week of August will rise back into the mid-upper 80's, with some mainly dry conditions going into the first weekend of the month. Models have been supporting the potential for a "cut-off" low scenario at the end of this week, which often leads to stagnant weather pattern in the vicinity of the low. The upper-level low, however, isn't over our heads but actually the Northwest Pacific. This will provide scorching hot, dry heat for the Southern Plains & Southwest U.S. Back in the Midwest, the pattern appears to offer near average conditions, with a few storm systems passing through the first couple weeks of the month.

Models eventually have this upper-level low get grabbed back onto the westerly flow, which will cause a big shift in the overall weather pattern for the country. After this point, long-range models need to be taken with a grain of salt, considering the inconsistencies & data availability for information this far out.

It is, however, evident that this month will start out somewhat like last month, with temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 80's. There then is a change in the pattern, which allows temperatures to cool back down to near average. Thus, the Climate Prediction Center or CPC, expects better chances for warmer than average conditions for the Northeast, Southwest and southern portions of the U.S. It isn't as clear for us back in Ohio, hence why we are in the "equal chances" category. This means that we have a fair shot or "equal chance" to have above, below or average temperatures this month.

Precipitation, on the other hand, looks to offer some relief from the developing drought conditions in Northern Ohio. While it isn't as strong of an indicator as the Southeast, there is a weak signal that we're going to have above average precipitation this month. This could also be responsible for the lack of signal in the temperature department given the fact that the rain & cloudy conditions will offer cooler conditions, so we may see a little more swing in temperatures through the month.

If you have any questions about Ohio weather or climate, please reach out to me!