WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of economists in a new survey expect the nation's unemployment rate to stay above 6 percent for at least four more years.
That's the upper limit of what's considered healthy. If the economists surveyed by The Associated Press are correct, the job market will still be unhealthy seven years after the recession officially ended in June of 2009.
That would be the longest stretch of high unemployment since the end of World War II.
It means the job market and the economy would remain big challenges in either a second Obama term or in Mitt Romney's first term.
The survey collected the views of 32 private, corporate and academic economists on a range of issues.
In their view, monthly job gains will average 139,000 the rest of the year. That's barely enough to keep up with population growth and keep unemployment from worsening.
They also believe the economy will continue to grow only slowly. The average forecast for the just-completed quarter is that GDP grew at an annual rate of 2 percent. The economists think the rate in the final six months of the year will be just 2.3 percent. That's too weak to bring the unemployment rate down.
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APPHOTO GFX226: Graphic shows results of the AP Economy Survey and the U.S. unemployment rate since (4 Jul 2012)
<<APPHOTO GFX226 (07/04/12)>>
APPHOTO NYBZ203: FILE - In this June 28, 2012, file photo, Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pauses while speaking about the Supreme Court's health care ruling in Washington. High unemployment threatens not only President Barack Obama's re-election prospects. It will also bedevil whoever occupies the White House for the next four years. According to 32 economists surveyed by the Associated Press, the unemployment rate, now 8.2 percent, will exceed its "normal" range of 5 to 6 percent until 2015 or later. The presidential winner in November will serve through 2016. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File) (28 Jun 2012)
<<APPHOTO NYBZ203 (06/28/12)>>
APPHOTO NYBZ201: FILE-In this Thursday, June 28, 2012, file photo, The White House is seen in Washington. High unemployment threatens not only President Barack Obama's re-election prospects. It will also bedevil whoever occupies the White House for the next four years. According to 32 economists surveyed by the Associated Press, the unemployment rate, now 8.2 percent, will exceed its "normal" range of 5 to 6 percent until 2015 or later. The presidential winner in November will serve through 2016. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File) (27 Jun 2012)
<<APPHOTO NYBZ201 (06/27/12)>>
