Older voters are the most likely to turn out in a midterm election, and a new poll conducted for AARP in Ohio shows Gov. John Kasich with a huge 15-point lead over his Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald.
The poll, conducted by former Democratic pollster Peter Hart, shows Kasich at 50 percent to FitzGerald's 35 percent with voters 50 and older.
Kasich leads by a wide margin with Republicans, men and white voters.
He also leads with women by two points, although the poll was conducted prior to news that FitzGerald was found by police with a woman who was not his wife at 4:30 in the morning back in 2012, and that he had gone about 10 years without a permanent driver's license.
"Time is running out for FitzGerald," said Republican strategist Terry Casey. "Not much fuel left in his gas tank, plus when he got lost driving his car off of the highway at 4:30 am with no valid driver’s license, it makes things so much harder to find your way."
Kasich also leads FitzGerald among Independent voters 44 percent to 20 percent.
FitzGerald does lead among Democrats, although his edge is significantly less than Kasich with Republicans. FitzGerald also leads 71 percent to four percent among African American voters.
"It is not unusual for incumbent Republicans to have a larger lead in the older demographics," said Brian Rothenberg from the left-leaning ProgressOhio. "Other demographics tighten and skew closer in almost all polls. So if this is a snapshot in time, it used a micro-lens. It's like looking at a lab slide and focusing in on only a piece of the evidence."
The poll shows seniors are particularly concerned about issues that involve jobs and the economy, and helping the elderly and disabled to live independently.